A Closer Look At The MLB Standings

Pythagorean record is a fun little statistic. In layman terms, it adjusts a teams record based on overall run differential (Runs Scored – Runs Allowed.) In theory it’s the most accurate way to team’s performance. If a team wins a lot of one run games (like the 2007 D-Backs) their actual record would be significantly better than there Pythagorean record. Now is Pythagorean record an absolute measure? Of course not, for example take the 2008 Yankees, if A-Rod and Posoda were healthy all year it would be safe to assume that the Yankees would have scored more runs (in turn their run differential would have been greater and therefore their Pythagorean record would have been more favorable.)

What Pythagorean record is good for is analyzing if a teams hot start or cold start is fluky. Take the 2008 Marlins at 37-32 however, they have allowed two more runs (339) than they have scored (337.) Their Pythagorean record would be 34-35. The Marlins start is somewhat fluky and they will most likely finishing closer to 80 wins than 90.

And with that let’s go to the judges scorecards.

AL East:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Boston	44-28	371	301	+71	43-29
Tampa	40-29	313	288	+25	37-32
New York Yankees	37-33	327	315	+12	36-34
Baltimore	34-34	298	314	-16	32-36
Toronto	35-36	286	267	+19	38-33

What does this tell us? Well, Boston is pretty damn good. The Rays (unlike their Florida counterpart) are legit. Whether they have the experience and chutzpah to make a playoff run is yet to be determined. Baltimore will finish well short of .500 but did anyone really expect them to be a winning team this year? Toronto is the big surprise. They have some interesting numbers, their hitting has been terrible but their pitching has been sick. They have played most of the year without a resurgent Vernon Wells so you could expect them to bounce back, according to Pythagorean record Toronto is second in the division and current in the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

And then we have the Yankees. As mentioned earlier there Runs Scored would certainly be higher had A-Rod and Jorge stayed healthy. Their pitching was adversely affected by Hughes and Kennedy but has gotten a lift from Joba. Going forward their hard team to project, they should keep scoring runs in bunches but it remains to be seen if they have the pitching to match (especially in light of Wang’s injury.)

AL Central:

Team	Record	Run Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Chicago Sox	38-31	316	256	+60	41-28
Minnesota	34-36	325	355	-30	32-38
Cleveland	33-37	320	298	+22	37-32
Detroit	32-37	328	337	-9	34-36
Kansas City	28-42	273	331	-58	29-42

Chicago has been pretty solid. There pitching has been very good and if their struggling bats come to life (Konerko/Swisher) they could be a force. Minnesota and Kansas City have been pretty bad, but both are in rebuilding years. Detroit is the biggest disappointment in baseball and there doesn’t seem to be light at the end of the tunnel.

Cleveland is the interesting team in the division. There Pythagorean difference of 4.3 games is one of the greatest in all of baseball. A rash of injuries (Westbrook, Carmona, Hafner and Martinez) could be the culprit for this difference. Also of note is the incredible slow start that ace C.C. Sabathia had. Is it any wonder why Mark Shapiro hasn’t decided to be a “seller” yet?

AL West:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
LA Angles	42-28	292	291	­+1	35-35
Oakland	38-31	307	252	+55	41-25
Texas	35-36	394	414	-20	33-37
Seattle	24-45	269	341	-72	27-42

This one was surprising. The Angles only have a Run Differential of +1. The Angles are the polar opposite of the Indians. The Angles (6.9 Pythagorean differential) have been the “luckiest” team in baseball. The A’s on the other hand have outperformed there record by three games.

In a Pythagorean world the A’s would have a six game lead over the L.A. Angles.

Texas’s statistics are inflated by their ball park. They have the offense now they need pitching to match. Seattle is terrible. They are about to clean house.

NL East:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Philadelphia	41-30	381	291	+90	44-27
Florida	37-32	337	339	-2	34-35
Atlanta	34-36	321	282	+39	39-31
NY Mets	33-35	322	216	+6	35-33
Washington	29-42	266	343	-77	27-44

Philly is as good as advertised. As long as Cole Hamels stays healthy they should run away with the division. The Braves record gets a boost, however with Smoltz and Glvaine on the DL it might be difficult for them to keep winning. Also Chipper Jones is bound to slow down at some point…right?

The Marlins we already went over, the Nationals are terrible without any end in sight.

The Mets are a giant turd. While there Pythagorean record puts them two games over .500 they still find themselves in third place. Heads are about to roll in flushing and unfortunately Willy Randolph is (undeservingly) the sacrificial lamb.

NL Central:

Team	Record	RS	RA	RD	Pythagorean Record
Chicago Cubs	45-25	387	279	+108	45-25
St. Louis	42-29	334	310	+24	38-33
Milwaukee	36-33	308	321	-13	33-36
Pittsburg	34-36	343	366	-23	33-37
Houston	33-37	311	345	-34	32-39
Cincinnati	33-38	314	352	-38	32-40

The Cubs have the best record in baseball and their run differential backs that up. They have a deep bullpen, solid pitching and a wonderfully patient approach to hitting.

Milwaukee, Pitt, Houston and Cincinnati are all not very good. Houston’s run differential predicted their recent slide. Pittsburg interestingly enough has scored 343 runs which are 3^rd in the NL.

I think Cincinnati is building something special. They have a young offense (Votto, Bruce, and Phillips) and pitching (Vasquez, Cueto, and Bailey.)

St. Louis to me is an enigma. So many players are playing out of their skull (Ryan Ludwik anyone?) With Pujols and Wainright out it’s hard to imagine they will stay in contention.

NL West:

Team	Record	RS	RA	RD	Pythagorean Record
Arizona	37-33	330	304	+26	38-32
LA Dodgers	31-38	292	297	-5	34-35
San Diego	31-40	269	324	-55	30-42
San Francisco	30-40	281	322	-41	31-40
Colorado	28-41	291	355	-64	28-41

Arizona has slowed down, good thing their division is awful.

It wouldn’t shock me to see the Dodgers make a run at the division crown.

The Giants need to rebuild and Colorado’s postseason run of last year seems like an aberration.

Now Is The Time

Papi is hurt, Manny is hurting, Schilling and Dice-K are out and Beckett hasn't been lights out.

Now is the time for the Yankees to make a run and get themselves back in contention.

The question is, can they do it with this current roster?

Unfortunately no. {Update: As I'm typing this Chien-Ming Wang goes down with what might be a serious ankle injury)

The Yankees still need a lights out starting pitcher. I was on the Johan Santana bandwagon this off-season and in hindsight the Yankees made the right choice by not trading for him. It's far too risky to give a pitcher a 5 to 7 year contract (See Zito, Barry)

This year however the Yankees can "rent" a Cy-Young caliber pitcher for just over half the season.

Of course I'm talking about C.C. Sabathia.

I say "rent" because it would be in the teams best interest to not resign C.C. if he is acquired and before you call me crazy hear me out.

Theres a good chance that C.C. will break down at some point in the next three or so years, he's a big guy with a lot of miles on him. Giving him a Zito sized contract would be a tremendous mistake. That contract will look tremendously foolish in the fourth to sixth year.

So, why would the Yankees trade top level prospects for a rental of C.C.?

Well the reasoning is two fold. One, C.C. gives the Yankees a chance to have a deep post-season run. A rotation of C.C., Wang (cross your fingers), Pettitte, Moose and Joba all of a sudden looks really dominate. In a short playoff series, in theory, Joba could go back to the 8th inning and serve as a dominate set up man again.

Secondly, If the Yankees were to hypothetically let C.C. walk at the end of the year they would acquire two very valuable draft picks. Remember draft picks are insanely valuable for a team like the Yankees. They can afford to pay players out of slot and with an extra two first round picks you could be looking at adding another two studs to our farm system (and in turn replacing whoever we trade for C.C.)

Now the Indians are not a dumb baseball organization. They know how the free agency system works and know they have two first roudners coming their way if they let Sabathia walk. Because of this they will certainly demand three top flight prospects.

So how can the Yankees make such a trade work?

How about: Kennedy, Cano and Tabata

Before you punch me in the face repeatedly let's be realistic.

Kennedy, peaks as a number three type starter. Tabata, while still very young for his level but he hasn't developed any sort of power. What he has developed are character issues and his "love for the game" has come into question.

Cano would be the big chip in this deal. It would be rough to part with a young infielder with pop and plus defense but, Cano simply is expendable. I've never been a Cano fan and I've always believed that when teams got a deeper scouting report on him he would falter. He has ZERO plate discipline and teams are exploiting it.

Now again remember that while parting with these three is a tough pill to swallow (especially fore a rental) it's one the Yankees can afford.

Again, when you factor in the two first rounders would we get back it's almost a wash. On top of that don't forget that the international signing period has just started. The Yankees always sign top flight international talent that will deepen, our already deep, farm system.

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

Who's Next?

No, That wasn’t a Goldberg reference. It’s a legit question for the Yankees.

While everyone hopes it doesn’t happen, The Yanks may need to call up another starter from the minor leagues at some point during this season. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes won’t be back anytime soon, and god forbid anyone gets hurt, the Yanks will be forced to dip into their talent pool one more time.

According to Rotoworld, the battle to be the next Yankees starting pitcher is between Alan Horne and Daniel McCutchen.

Let’s break it down, and figure out who should be called up next.

Horne is a former 11th round pick of the Yanks who received a 400,000 dollar bonus when he signed. He was named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2007 when he was with the Trenton Thunder. He put up solid numbers with a 3.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

This season he missed quite a bit of time due to a bicep strain, but has been solid. He’s put up a 3.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 4 games at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre at the age of 25. His strikeout-to-walk ration is 18:7. The sample size is small, but there is nothing to make you think that he won’t be consistent.

He features a Four seam Fastball, as well as a cutter that he learned in junior college. He throws a “hammer” curveball that bites down in the zone, and some consider his best pitch.

Daniel McCutchen is also 25, and pitching for Scranton. This season he’s pitched 32.1 innings over 5 starts. He’s 1-4, but we all know that wins are a bad measure of a pitcher. Instead, Let’s look at his 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This the first time in his minor league career that his ERA has been over 3.00. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s struck out 21 while walking just 4.

He made headlines last year because he served a 50 game suspension for violating the MLB substance abuse policy. He tested positive for a prescription amphetamine. After sitting the first three weeks of the 2008 season, he reported to Double-A Trenton.

McCutchen is a bit of a different pitcher than Horne. He throws about 92 with his fastball, which he can certainly get by on. He also throws a good curveball and a splitter, but neither is seen as a true “out pitch.” This leads people to wonder about him getting big league batters out. That being said, the Pending Pinstripes Yanks minor league blog could imagine him becoming Dan Haren-esque with improved control.

So, Let’s a make a quick decision.

It’s has to be Horne right now because of having the better “stuff.” As long as he is healthy, then there is no reason not to give him the shot that he has earned over the last two seasons. That doesn’t mean that McCutchen isn’t a good pitcher, because he is. If his control continues to emerge, he could find himself pitching at the ballpark in the bronx in September. However, right now, Horne is the better play.

Agree? Disagree? Comment!

This Couldn't Be Any More Annoying...

J. Brent Cox, who I have been raving about for some time now, has been put on the disabled list with shoulder Tendonitis. According to the New York Daily News, he was next in line to be called up to the Yankees bullpen.

Cox currently has an ERA of 0.73 and a WHIP of 0.81 in 12.1 innings of relief in Triple-A.

He's expected to miss about three weeks.

Moooose....

Despite the Yankees losing today by a score of 3-2, You have to give a little bit of love to Yankees starting pitcher Mike Mussina for the season he’s been having this year.

Today, he gave up 2 earned runs in eight innings of work before Mariano Rivera gave up a rare home run to Jose Guillen to lose the game. Going into today’s game, he had an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of just 1.28. His curveball has been sharp and despite only topping out in the mid-80’s his fastball has movement, which makes it hard to hit.

Considering how bad the Yanks starting pitching has been so far, it’s a wonder that they are even around .500, and Moose is a huge part of that.

In other news, how much would it take to have Jose Guillen killed?

Because Other People Are Smarter Than I Am

The Harball Times is quickly becoming one of my favorite websites. This week they have a column called

Will Joba Chamberlain make a good starter?

I would recommend reading the entire article. However, if your short on time here's some highlights.

-"Chamberlain’s fastball comes in 10.8 inches higher than a theoretical spin-less pitch thrown at the same speed—almost two inches more than the average fastball. His curve, on the other hand, has more than four extra inches of drop to it in comparison to the average curveball. His slider does the same: Whereas the average slider has about 4 inches of vertical movement on it, Chamberlain’s slider actually drops a bit more in comparison to that theoretical spin-less pitch thrown at the same speed. The nasty downward movement makes Chamberlain’s slider basically unhittable."

-"As a reliever, Chamberlain throws his fastball 68 percent of the time, his slider 25 percent of the time and his curveball the other seven. That mix didn’t change too much Tuesday, though he did throw a few more fastballs (3.7, to be exact) and a few less curveballs than usual."

-"Though the sample sizes are tenuously small (two curveballs, 14 sliders, and 46 fastballs), the results for the latter two categories are at least intriguing. Chamberlain’s fastball was called a ball 20 percent more often than usual, and his slider was a ball 43 percent more. Both those results are a bit more than a standard deviation away from our expectation—not a statistically significant difference by any means, but perhaps something to watch out for."

-"Tom Tango suggested after the start that Chamberlain may have showed the ability to dial it up when needed, noting that he thought the variation in Chamberlain’s pitch speed was greater than he would have expected. However, if we look at all of Chamberlain’s fastballs, we find the standard deviation of his velocities on Tuesday was 1.74 mph, which is not statistically distinguishable from his standard deviation as a reliever, which is 1.64."

"So, with all that said, what have we learned about Chamberlain’s abilities as a starter? Honestly, not much. His pitches came in a little slower on Tuesday, he threw his fastball a little more often and his control was definitely off.

Still, it’s difficult to make any concrete conclusions from a sample size of 62 pitches, so for now—since Chamberlain’s start was far from devastatingly bad—my best guess would be that he will fare just fine as a starter. His ERA will probably jump about a run, as is normal when a pitcher goes from the bullpen to the rotation, but even with a run added to his ERA, Chamberlain is exactly the kind of starting pitcher the Yankees sorely need."

And I totally agree.

A Pair Of Middle Infielders

The Yanks next picks are David Adams a Junior from Virgina and Corban Joseph a SS from Franklin High School.

Adams is a "solid hard nosed player" that gets ultimate praise from scouts for being a "real baseball player." He's coming off a down season but has hit in the past.

Scouting reports courtesy of MLB.com

Second Round Joseph Scott Bittle

Bittle is a college closer who doesn't project as a closer in the MLB. He has good stuff and could be an effective middle reliever. Still no position prospects. Doesn't this concern anyone else?

Baseball America on Bittle:

Taken by the Yankees in the 48th round of last year’s draft, Bittle elected not to sign and transferred to Ole Miss this season from Northwest Texas CC. He was thrown into the closer’s role for the Rebels and has dominated SEC hitters all season, putting up Nintendo type numbers. He has tallied an almost 5 to 1 K/BB ratio, striking out close to two batters per inning pitched.

Uncharacteristic for a closer, Bittle’s fastball is just an average pitch, with velocity between the 88-91 mph range. However, Bittle pitches mainly off his cut fastball — a devastating late breaking pitch in the mid-80s that has two-plane movement similar to a slider. Bittle is able to command this pitch down in the zone and creates a ton of swings and misses by starting it just above the knees and having it drop just below the strike-zone. He also effectively mixes in a changeup, freezing unsuspecting hitters.

At 6-foot-1, 212 pounds, and without an above-average fastball, Bittle does not fit the typical closer’s profile in the major leagues. He will most likely be a long relief or setup man in the pros. Once signed, he should move quickly as his command and stuff are close to major league ready.

Gerrit Cole!

Baseball America scouting report on Cole:

Cole is the best righthander out of Southern California since Phil Hughes starred at Santa Ana’s Foothills High in 2004. Cole’s four-seam fastball ranges from 93-96 mph, occasionally peaking at 97-98. He adds a hard, late-breaking curve which shows bite, tilt and depth. Cole used his changeup sparingly early in the season, though he used it more later. Adding to Cole’s considerable appeal to scouts is his tall, lanky and projectable frame, which is nearly ideal for a prep righthander. Scouts are split over whether Cole profiles as a starter or closer. He maintains velocity and pitch movement deep into games, but his inconsistent command and tendency to run up high pitch counts may move him to the bullpen. Some scouts have compared him to Mariners closer J.J. Putz. Cole does bring mechanical concerns. He lands on a stiff front leg, and he recoils his arm during his follow-through. Both hurt control and raise injury concerns. Complicating the situation, Cole’s adviser is the Scott Boras Corp., which may eliminate many clubs from consideration. Cole also hasn’t endeared himself to scouts or teammates with what one scout described as his immature mound demeanor.

Typical Yankee pick. When you have the resources to pay players out of slot (and subsequently paying prep arms not to go to college) you have a big advantage. Hopefully Cole matures with time. The Yankees are loaded with young power arms.

The Yankees second pick was a "sandwich pick" that was aquired by letting Luis Vizcaino go to Colorado as a free agent. Stanford LHP Jeremy Bleich was selected with the 44th pick.

I don't know a ton about Bleich but from what I've read this pick is regarded as a reach. I know in a draft you don't want to reach for need however with the large amount of arms and the total lack of position players we in the minors I don't know how taking another pitcher (and one with limited upside) makes sense.

Back with more draft thoughts a little later.

Joba Probably Likes Meat Also. Inning 3.

8:00 Remember when the debate was about whether or not Joba should have even been called up to relief last year? The same people that didn't want him to be called up now want to keep him a reliever. People have short memories

8:01 Bobby made a play by the wall my god! One away.

8:02 4 Pitch walk on another questionable pitch and that's it. 62 Pitches. Standing ovation fr Joba as he leaves the field. He throws his hat and glove as he sits down and has an expression that shows he was not pleased with his performance.

Overall impressions.

He certainly came out of the gate fired up and I think that played a role is his early control struggles. He was throwing hard but I don't think he did a great job of mixing up his pitches. I don't think he threw the change at all.

As I said earlier today was just a minor step in Jobas overall development. You would have liked to see him last a little longer and face more batters but again this is a long process.

I'll chime in from time to time but in terms of a play by play this ends our festivities. As long as I'm home I'll try to make a habit of Blogging Jobas starts.

Enjoy the game!

Joba V The World: Inning 2

18 Balls 20 Strikes: 38 Pitches

Inning 2

7:43 Joba seems to have calmed down and is hitting his spots exactly on the first two pitches. He misses with two breaking balls 2-2. Just misses on a pitch that was a strike for Halladay and not Joba.

3-2 again and Brad Wilkerson hits what looks like a harmless fly ball but somehow ends up being caught on the warning track

7:45 46 Pitches. Haven't seen the change up yet as he blows away David Eckstein on 98 MPH fastball with a little cut on it.

7:47 Shannon Stewart the sequel. Fly ball to right. 55 Pitches

2-1 at the end of the inning.

7:54 Just got into a rousing debate with my friend Brian, who came over for the game about meat. He doesn't believe in it...I do

In other news Harlan Chamberlain count 1.

Johnny Damon Cycle count 2.

2-1 Yanks after 2.

Joba back on the mound and we'll start a new thread for what could be Jobas final inning tonight.

Yankee Game: Joba's First Start. Live Blog! Inning 1

Technical delays. Were back now though.

Joba is warming up.

7:10 - It sounds like the playoffs at Yankee stadium!

92 MPH Fastball. He's going to have to lower the velocity to maintain stamina. Mike Kay says he has a 70 pitch count. Hit 96 on a fastball with a lot of movement on the second pitch.

7:11 -98 on a 1-2 fastball. I wonder if he's overthrowing a little here. He is certainly fire up. I like the Joba Stubble. An 8 pitch first at bat does not bode well for him lasting long into this game.

This crowd is going to go nuts with a strike out here.

7:12 Stewart walks a walk. Good at bat by both pitcher and hitter, Joba didn't throw many breaking pitches.

Did I mention Joba is on my fantasy team? This is either going to be reaaaaalllly awesome or reallly sucky.

7:13 Remember the playoff game when Joba was a little wild and overthrowing. That's what this is reminding me of.

Another full count.

7:15 Joba Pitch Count 14.

And there's the first K of Jobas career....on a hanging breaking ball.

And there's the first balk of Jobas career. I don't know about that he went to first on the pickoff. I don't get that call at all.

7:17 When you can throw 97 and 77 with a fastball curve combo it's pretty deadly.

1-2 count on Rios but Stewart moves to 3rd on a walk, balk and passed ball.

7:20 Well that's small ball for you. 1-0 Blue Jays on a weak ground ball fielders choice.

101? Ok...the Yankee radar is on steroids.

Nasty slider. 1-2 single by Rolen.

Jobas missing just slightly but this is why the lord invented SABERmetric stats. walk, balk, passed ball, a fielders choice and a weak single that finds just the right spot on the infield.

Pitch Count 28. Another walk.

7:24 A somewhat tight strike zone so far. Joba goes full again. He's missing his spots. 33 pitches this inning. He's never throw more than 40 in a game.

Another walk on a good curve ball out of the zone that Overbay a patient hitter held up on.

The Yanks just picked up the phone to call the bullpen.

7:27 Al Lieter makes a good point. The Jays know Jobas pitch count limit and know that an unproven commodity, Dan Giese, is following him up. There taking a lot of pitches and that could be factoring into their motivation a lot.

Strike out too end the inning.

3 walks, 2k's 1 run and 38 pitches.

At this rate Joba might not see the lineup a second time through and that won't be good for his development.

7:31 Damon triples. Joba averages 14.1 an inning so were looking at probably only two more innings of Joba. Chris Britton was sent down to make room for Giese. DFA LaTroy!

7:38 You gotta wonder how much playing the field really took out of Matsui. Being a DH has revived him. RBI single for Matsui. 1rst and 2nd 1-1.

7:40 Wow terrible strike call on a pitch that was more than questionable on Giambino, a hitter with a great eye.

and Wow part two Giambi goes the other way on the ground and says eff you shift. 2-1 Yanks.

and not shockingly enough Cano swings at anything that moves. I hate him.

Back with a new post as Joba takes the mound!

Live Blog Of Jobas First Start!

Our last live blog got great results so were at it again!

Get in front of a T.V. and your computer at 7:05 as the 3SS provides a live analysis of Joba's first start in pin stripes!

What To Expect From Joba Tonight

Yankee stadium tonight is going to be filled with a buzz usually reserved for the post-season. Tonight Joba Chamberlain won't be emerging from his typical spot in right field bullpen to screaming and chanting of tens of thousands of fans. Tonight Joba will be on the mound as tens of thousands of fans nervously anticipate what's to come.

I'm excited and nervous for Joba's debut tonight. I'm excited for the obvious reasons; having a homegrown ace with electrifying stuff (and a great personality to boot) is rarity in baseball these days. I've been clamoring for Joba to be a starter since day one and tonight hopefully will be the start of a long and brilliant career that will validate his move to the rotation.

I'm nervous for the obvious reasons. New York can (and will) turn on you in a second, just ask A-Rod. And while Joba has been exposed to the pressures pitching in pin stripes can impose on you, he's never been under as big of a microscope as he will tonight. I guarantee you Joba's face will be plastered on the back page of every NY newspaper tomorrow. Along with the cover will come a full analysis of his debut as well as an editorial debating the merits of Joba as a starter. I can only imagine NY talk radio if Joba has one bad start, let alone two or three.

So let's be realistic Yankee fans, let's temper our expectations a bit. Joba is a young kid making his debut under absurd scrutiny and a rigid pitch count. I doubt Joba will even be pitching deep enough into the game to qualify for a win.

Secondly, Joba has yet to go through a line up more than once. I'm not saying hitters will just be smoking him the second time through the lineup, but it's something, as a starter, Joba will have to adjust to (and it might take a couple starts to do so.)

Everyone wants Joba to be the next big thing and I do to. It's important to remember that even if Joba struggles it doesn't mean he can't be the next Josh Beckett, before Josh Beckett was a Cy-Young candidate he posted a 5.01 ERA in 33 starts with the Red Sox.

In the long run Joba has the potential to be a dominant front line starter. Tonights performance, one way or another doesn't change that.

That's Two...

Pitchers who have recently taken line drives to the face.

First, Albert Pujols hits Chris Young, and today Bobby Abreu hits Nick Blackburn.

Like they said on the YES broadcast, It's amazing that it doesn't happen more, but it's still ashame that it happens at all.

YES also just reported that Blackburn never lost consciousness and he is currently only suffering from a bloody nose.

That's a good sign.

What the Hell Happened to Delmon Young?

Yes, I'm back. I'm rested, and ready to blog.

- So, remember last year when Delmon Young was an exciting, can't miss prospect? Well, after watching the last two games of this Yanks-Twins series, I find myself wondering how a player can go from so good to so bad so quickly.

Young's stats tell a lot of the story, but also, he just looks like he forgot how to swing the bat.

- Another interesting note from this game is Darrell Rasner being Darrell Rasner. We all love the great story of an unheard guy coming up and contributing to a winning team, but the truth is that he simply isn't that great. Rasner is showing the difference between and an ace and a 3rd or 4th starter. Rasner has given up three runs so far, and he just doesn't seem to miss bats. When the ball is being put in play alot, there's alot of chances for things to go wrong, especially with a defense as weak as the Yankees. Rasner is nothing more than a guy that doesn't throw many pitches and allows the bullpen to rest. That's not going to win you any championships.

He Might Be An Ace But He's Not My Ace

Joe Saunders is having a great season so far.

He's 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Those are Cy-Young caliber numbers. To the untrained eye it might look like Saunders, at 27, has finally put it all together.

However, I can almost guarantee you that at some point soon Saunders will take a nose dive and finish with roughly the 4.00 ERA that his has for his career.

How can I say that with such certainty?

It's SABREmetrics my dear Watson!

ERA/WHIP/W/K's get so much pub mainly because of Fantasy Baseball. BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) doesn't get much publicity. However BABIP and K/9 (Strikeouts Per 9 Innings) are better indicators of ones season than ERA and WHIP.

Maybe they aren't "better" indicators per say, but what they can do is tell you if a season that seems kinda fluky is or isn't.

So to go along with Saunders marvelous ERA and WHIP he has a not so marvelous .216 BABIP (a very low number) and a 3.73 K/9 (a disturbingly low rate.)

To further elaborate on his BABIP there's a stat called Delta H.

Delta H -The number of hits above or below average for this pitcher, based on his own number of balls in play and his team's rate of hits (minus home runs) per ball in play; (H-HR) - BIP * (team (H-HR)/BIP). Essentially, the Voros McCracken number. For a team, Delta-H should be zero. Positive numbers signify more hits allowed than expected ("bad luck," if you believe pitchers have nothing to do with the outcome of a BIP), negative numbers mean fewer hits than expected ("good luck").

Saunders Delta H is -14. That would indicate he's had a whole lot of good luck this season. And he's likely to fall flat on his face the second half of the season.

The whole point of SABRE pitching stats are too remove as many variables as possible. Win/Loss record is such an arbitrary stat. You need to equate ERA for the different dimensions of stadiums and the difference of the DH. Equate for defense, when the ball is hit in play the pitchers loses control of the outcome of the play. It's why strikeout pitchers (and K/9) are so much more valuable.

And it's why in my eyes Chien-Ming Wang will never be ace. Because he is a ground ball pitcher he leaves too much to chance. Is it raining, are my infielders going to miss balls? Is the grass cut to high? Is the wind blowing out? Does the other team have great speed and can beat out ground balls? It's why on any given day (and as we have seen in the playoffs repeatedly) if he doesn't have his sinker working he is ineffective.

He only strikes out 5.27 per 9 innings and his Delta H is -8 which would indicate he's had a lot of good luck this year. He's a nice pitcher and he seems to have an uncanny ability to win games but statistical analysis will tell you that you can't expect him to be an ace.

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I looked at the early season stats and found a lot of anomalies. There's a lot of guys having absurd numbers and some of them are for real and some aren't.

The Joe Saunders Sell High Award

Joe Saunders (-14 Delta H, 3.73 K/9)

Gavin Floyd (2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) (3.86 K/9, .167 BABIP, -19 Delta H)

Ryan Dempster (2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) (7.53 K/9 .213 BABIP -10 Delta H)

Aaron Cook (3.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) (4.26 K/9 . -3 Delta H -4 Delta Runs)

Fausto Carmona (3.10 ERA 1.59 WHIP) (3.57 K/9 -Delta H -8 Delta Runs 4.5 Walks/9)

Scott Olsen (.216 BABIP 4.06 K/9 -12 Delta H)

The Sammy Sosa High Heat Baseball It's So Real Award

Edison Volquez (.267 BABIP 11.04 K/9)

Tim Lincecum (.306 BABIP +4 Delta H 9.96 K/9)

Rich Harden (.309 BABIP +3 Delta H 11.71 K/9 42 STUFF)

Javier Vasquez (.313 BABIP +7 Delta H 8.91 K/9 36 STUFF)

Chad Billingsley (.305 BABIP +2 Delta H 10.25 K/9 34 STUFF)

and for Yankee fans don't worry about Andy Pettitte

.326 BABIP +8 Delta Hits and 7.17 K/9. He'll be ok

The list could go on and on. If you want any pitchers analyzed leave the name of who you want in the comments.