Because Other People Are Smarter Than I Am

The Harball Times is quickly becoming one of my favorite websites. This week they have a column called

Will Joba Chamberlain make a good starter?

I would recommend reading the entire article. However, if your short on time here's some highlights.

-"Chamberlain’s fastball comes in 10.8 inches higher than a theoretical spin-less pitch thrown at the same speed—almost two inches more than the average fastball. His curve, on the other hand, has more than four extra inches of drop to it in comparison to the average curveball. His slider does the same: Whereas the average slider has about 4 inches of vertical movement on it, Chamberlain’s slider actually drops a bit more in comparison to that theoretical spin-less pitch thrown at the same speed. The nasty downward movement makes Chamberlain’s slider basically unhittable."

-"As a reliever, Chamberlain throws his fastball 68 percent of the time, his slider 25 percent of the time and his curveball the other seven. That mix didn’t change too much Tuesday, though he did throw a few more fastballs (3.7, to be exact) and a few less curveballs than usual."

-"Though the sample sizes are tenuously small (two curveballs, 14 sliders, and 46 fastballs), the results for the latter two categories are at least intriguing. Chamberlain’s fastball was called a ball 20 percent more often than usual, and his slider was a ball 43 percent more. Both those results are a bit more than a standard deviation away from our expectation—not a statistically significant difference by any means, but perhaps something to watch out for."

-"Tom Tango suggested after the start that Chamberlain may have showed the ability to dial it up when needed, noting that he thought the variation in Chamberlain’s pitch speed was greater than he would have expected. However, if we look at all of Chamberlain’s fastballs, we find the standard deviation of his velocities on Tuesday was 1.74 mph, which is not statistically distinguishable from his standard deviation as a reliever, which is 1.64."

"So, with all that said, what have we learned about Chamberlain’s abilities as a starter? Honestly, not much. His pitches came in a little slower on Tuesday, he threw his fastball a little more often and his control was definitely off.

Still, it’s difficult to make any concrete conclusions from a sample size of 62 pitches, so for now—since Chamberlain’s start was far from devastatingly bad—my best guess would be that he will fare just fine as a starter. His ERA will probably jump about a run, as is normal when a pitcher goes from the bullpen to the rotation, but even with a run added to his ERA, Chamberlain is exactly the kind of starting pitcher the Yankees sorely need."

And I totally agree.