In English...

What Jason was trying to say is that we have indeed moved on up, similar to the Jeffersons.

The 3rd String Safety now has it's own domain name, and will be located at www.3rdstringsafety.com from here on it.

I don't know what "Wear it out" means, but you should definitely go there. A lot. It's where the cool kids hang out.

I Told You Big Things Were Coming

Our little Blog is all grown up. He's all growns up and he's alllll growns up.\

Let me introduce you to the new Third String Saftey


Boo Yak A Sha

http://www.3rdstringsafety.com/ wear it out.

A Closer Look At The MLB Standings

Pythagorean record is a fun little statistic. In layman terms, it adjusts a teams record based on overall run differential (Runs Scored – Runs Allowed.) In theory it’s the most accurate way to team’s performance. If a team wins a lot of one run games (like the 2007 D-Backs) their actual record would be significantly better than there Pythagorean record. Now is Pythagorean record an absolute measure? Of course not, for example take the 2008 Yankees, if A-Rod and Posoda were healthy all year it would be safe to assume that the Yankees would have scored more runs (in turn their run differential would have been greater and therefore their Pythagorean record would have been more favorable.)

What Pythagorean record is good for is analyzing if a teams hot start or cold start is fluky. Take the 2008 Marlins at 37-32 however, they have allowed two more runs (339) than they have scored (337.) Their Pythagorean record would be 34-35. The Marlins start is somewhat fluky and they will most likely finishing closer to 80 wins than 90.

And with that let’s go to the judges scorecards.

AL East:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Boston	44-28	371	301	+71	43-29
Tampa	40-29	313	288	+25	37-32
New York Yankees	37-33	327	315	+12	36-34
Baltimore	34-34	298	314	-16	32-36
Toronto	35-36	286	267	+19	38-33

What does this tell us? Well, Boston is pretty damn good. The Rays (unlike their Florida counterpart) are legit. Whether they have the experience and chutzpah to make a playoff run is yet to be determined. Baltimore will finish well short of .500 but did anyone really expect them to be a winning team this year? Toronto is the big surprise. They have some interesting numbers, their hitting has been terrible but their pitching has been sick. They have played most of the year without a resurgent Vernon Wells so you could expect them to bounce back, according to Pythagorean record Toronto is second in the division and current in the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

And then we have the Yankees. As mentioned earlier there Runs Scored would certainly be higher had A-Rod and Jorge stayed healthy. Their pitching was adversely affected by Hughes and Kennedy but has gotten a lift from Joba. Going forward their hard team to project, they should keep scoring runs in bunches but it remains to be seen if they have the pitching to match (especially in light of Wang’s injury.)

AL Central:

Team	Record	Run Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Chicago Sox	38-31	316	256	+60	41-28
Minnesota	34-36	325	355	-30	32-38
Cleveland	33-37	320	298	+22	37-32
Detroit	32-37	328	337	-9	34-36
Kansas City	28-42	273	331	-58	29-42

Chicago has been pretty solid. There pitching has been very good and if their struggling bats come to life (Konerko/Swisher) they could be a force. Minnesota and Kansas City have been pretty bad, but both are in rebuilding years. Detroit is the biggest disappointment in baseball and there doesn’t seem to be light at the end of the tunnel.

Cleveland is the interesting team in the division. There Pythagorean difference of 4.3 games is one of the greatest in all of baseball. A rash of injuries (Westbrook, Carmona, Hafner and Martinez) could be the culprit for this difference. Also of note is the incredible slow start that ace C.C. Sabathia had. Is it any wonder why Mark Shapiro hasn’t decided to be a “seller” yet?

AL West:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
LA Angles	42-28	292	291	­+1	35-35
Oakland	38-31	307	252	+55	41-25
Texas	35-36	394	414	-20	33-37
Seattle	24-45	269	341	-72	27-42

This one was surprising. The Angles only have a Run Differential of +1. The Angles are the polar opposite of the Indians. The Angles (6.9 Pythagorean differential) have been the “luckiest” team in baseball. The A’s on the other hand have outperformed there record by three games.

In a Pythagorean world the A’s would have a six game lead over the L.A. Angles.

Texas’s statistics are inflated by their ball park. They have the offense now they need pitching to match. Seattle is terrible. They are about to clean house.

NL East:

Team	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Differential	Pythagorean Record
Philadelphia	41-30	381	291	+90	44-27
Florida	37-32	337	339	-2	34-35
Atlanta	34-36	321	282	+39	39-31
NY Mets	33-35	322	216	+6	35-33
Washington	29-42	266	343	-77	27-44

Philly is as good as advertised. As long as Cole Hamels stays healthy they should run away with the division. The Braves record gets a boost, however with Smoltz and Glvaine on the DL it might be difficult for them to keep winning. Also Chipper Jones is bound to slow down at some point…right?

The Marlins we already went over, the Nationals are terrible without any end in sight.

The Mets are a giant turd. While there Pythagorean record puts them two games over .500 they still find themselves in third place. Heads are about to roll in flushing and unfortunately Willy Randolph is (undeservingly) the sacrificial lamb.

NL Central:

Team	Record	RS	RA	RD	Pythagorean Record
Chicago Cubs	45-25	387	279	+108	45-25
St. Louis	42-29	334	310	+24	38-33
Milwaukee	36-33	308	321	-13	33-36
Pittsburg	34-36	343	366	-23	33-37
Houston	33-37	311	345	-34	32-39
Cincinnati	33-38	314	352	-38	32-40

The Cubs have the best record in baseball and their run differential backs that up. They have a deep bullpen, solid pitching and a wonderfully patient approach to hitting.

Milwaukee, Pitt, Houston and Cincinnati are all not very good. Houston’s run differential predicted their recent slide. Pittsburg interestingly enough has scored 343 runs which are 3^rd in the NL.

I think Cincinnati is building something special. They have a young offense (Votto, Bruce, and Phillips) and pitching (Vasquez, Cueto, and Bailey.)

St. Louis to me is an enigma. So many players are playing out of their skull (Ryan Ludwik anyone?) With Pujols and Wainright out it’s hard to imagine they will stay in contention.

NL West:

Team	Record	RS	RA	RD	Pythagorean Record
Arizona	37-33	330	304	+26	38-32
LA Dodgers	31-38	292	297	-5	34-35
San Diego	31-40	269	324	-55	30-42
San Francisco	30-40	281	322	-41	31-40
Colorado	28-41	291	355	-64	28-41

Arizona has slowed down, good thing their division is awful.

It wouldn’t shock me to see the Dodgers make a run at the division crown.

The Giants need to rebuild and Colorado’s postseason run of last year seems like an aberration.

Now Is The Time

Papi is hurt, Manny is hurting, Schilling and Dice-K are out and Beckett hasn't been lights out.

Now is the time for the Yankees to make a run and get themselves back in contention.

The question is, can they do it with this current roster?

Unfortunately no. {Update: As I'm typing this Chien-Ming Wang goes down with what might be a serious ankle injury)

The Yankees still need a lights out starting pitcher. I was on the Johan Santana bandwagon this off-season and in hindsight the Yankees made the right choice by not trading for him. It's far too risky to give a pitcher a 5 to 7 year contract (See Zito, Barry)

This year however the Yankees can "rent" a Cy-Young caliber pitcher for just over half the season.

Of course I'm talking about C.C. Sabathia.

I say "rent" because it would be in the teams best interest to not resign C.C. if he is acquired and before you call me crazy hear me out.

Theres a good chance that C.C. will break down at some point in the next three or so years, he's a big guy with a lot of miles on him. Giving him a Zito sized contract would be a tremendous mistake. That contract will look tremendously foolish in the fourth to sixth year.

So, why would the Yankees trade top level prospects for a rental of C.C.?

Well the reasoning is two fold. One, C.C. gives the Yankees a chance to have a deep post-season run. A rotation of C.C., Wang (cross your fingers), Pettitte, Moose and Joba all of a sudden looks really dominate. In a short playoff series, in theory, Joba could go back to the 8th inning and serve as a dominate set up man again.

Secondly, If the Yankees were to hypothetically let C.C. walk at the end of the year they would acquire two very valuable draft picks. Remember draft picks are insanely valuable for a team like the Yankees. They can afford to pay players out of slot and with an extra two first round picks you could be looking at adding another two studs to our farm system (and in turn replacing whoever we trade for C.C.)

Now the Indians are not a dumb baseball organization. They know how the free agency system works and know they have two first roudners coming their way if they let Sabathia walk. Because of this they will certainly demand three top flight prospects.

So how can the Yankees make such a trade work?

How about: Kennedy, Cano and Tabata

Before you punch me in the face repeatedly let's be realistic.

Kennedy, peaks as a number three type starter. Tabata, while still very young for his level but he hasn't developed any sort of power. What he has developed are character issues and his "love for the game" has come into question.

Cano would be the big chip in this deal. It would be rough to part with a young infielder with pop and plus defense but, Cano simply is expendable. I've never been a Cano fan and I've always believed that when teams got a deeper scouting report on him he would falter. He has ZERO plate discipline and teams are exploiting it.

Now again remember that while parting with these three is a tough pill to swallow (especially fore a rental) it's one the Yankees can afford.

Again, when you factor in the two first rounders would we get back it's almost a wash. On top of that don't forget that the international signing period has just started. The Yankees always sign top flight international talent that will deepen, our already deep, farm system.

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

Who's Next?

No, That wasn’t a Goldberg reference. It’s a legit question for the Yankees.

While everyone hopes it doesn’t happen, The Yanks may need to call up another starter from the minor leagues at some point during this season. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes won’t be back anytime soon, and god forbid anyone gets hurt, the Yanks will be forced to dip into their talent pool one more time.

According to Rotoworld, the battle to be the next Yankees starting pitcher is between Alan Horne and Daniel McCutchen.

Let’s break it down, and figure out who should be called up next.

Horne is a former 11th round pick of the Yanks who received a 400,000 dollar bonus when he signed. He was named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2007 when he was with the Trenton Thunder. He put up solid numbers with a 3.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

This season he missed quite a bit of time due to a bicep strain, but has been solid. He’s put up a 3.44 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 4 games at Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre at the age of 25. His strikeout-to-walk ration is 18:7. The sample size is small, but there is nothing to make you think that he won’t be consistent.

He features a Four seam Fastball, as well as a cutter that he learned in junior college. He throws a “hammer” curveball that bites down in the zone, and some consider his best pitch.

Daniel McCutchen is also 25, and pitching for Scranton. This season he’s pitched 32.1 innings over 5 starts. He’s 1-4, but we all know that wins are a bad measure of a pitcher. Instead, Let’s look at his 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. This the first time in his minor league career that his ERA has been over 3.00. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s struck out 21 while walking just 4.

He made headlines last year because he served a 50 game suspension for violating the MLB substance abuse policy. He tested positive for a prescription amphetamine. After sitting the first three weeks of the 2008 season, he reported to Double-A Trenton.

McCutchen is a bit of a different pitcher than Horne. He throws about 92 with his fastball, which he can certainly get by on. He also throws a good curveball and a splitter, but neither is seen as a true “out pitch.” This leads people to wonder about him getting big league batters out. That being said, the Pending Pinstripes Yanks minor league blog could imagine him becoming Dan Haren-esque with improved control.

So, Let’s a make a quick decision.

It’s has to be Horne right now because of having the better “stuff.” As long as he is healthy, then there is no reason not to give him the shot that he has earned over the last two seasons. That doesn’t mean that McCutchen isn’t a good pitcher, because he is. If his control continues to emerge, he could find himself pitching at the ballpark in the bronx in September. However, right now, Horne is the better play.

Agree? Disagree? Comment!

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What If: Josh Hamilton Played for the Rays?

Let’s think about this for a second. We all know Josh Hamilton’s story. His battle with addiction and his rise to fame with great seasons in Texas and Cincinnati. However, Hamilton was the 1st overall pick of the 1999 Draft by Tampa Bay. Also selected in that draft was Carl Crawford, who is currently playing Left Field for the Rays.

Imagine the outfield that they could have had! Crawford in left, Hamilton in center, and any of their other 44 outfield prospects in right field. Like who? Glad you asked. How about Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Elijah Dukes, Johnny Gomes, or Rocco Baldelli?

Now, I know what you are thinking. Well, if Hamilton succeeded, they wouldn’t have drafted all of those guys. Not true. In baseball, you almost never draft for need, because you don’t know who is ever going to make it to the big leagues. That’s part of the reason that Dukes and Young aren’t considered busts; they allowed them to get back fantastic prospects in return.

Nonetheless, any of those combinations probably would have gotten the Rays into contention a lot faster than they did in reality.

Here’s a better question: Who is scouting outfielders for the Rays? He’s fantastic. I’m aware of the fact that Upton was a shortstop, but it’s obvious that he could play center field. Nonetheless, the bevy of first round picks that have become stars for the Rays show that the baseball draft is not worthless as some lesser fans would suggest.

That being said, the Rays still needed some help from the Mets in the form of a trade that made no sense. How good would Scott Kazmir look in orange and blue right now?